📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Giannina x Atromitos Athinon
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Analysis from Giannina x Atromitos Athinon for the Greece Super League 1 – 16 of January
🏟️ Giannina X Atromitos Athinon – Greece Super League 1
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Giannina x Atromitos Athinon right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 288253 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Giannina x Atromitos Athinon
Is it a good idea to bet on Giannina?
🔵 Giannina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 48.46% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $456.00
- And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$64.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 310 times – profiting $666.50;
- And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$23.50.
Should you bet on Atromitos Athinon?
🔴 Atromitos Athinon: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 200 times – profiting $570.00;
- And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$230.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Giannina x Atromitos Athinon
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Giannina
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Giannina x Atromitos Athinon
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Giannina and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Giannina.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Atromitos Athinon.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Giannina x Atromitos Athinon
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves