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16/1/2022 15:00 |
 Gondomar2.00 |
X 3.05 |
SC Espinho  3.57 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Gondomar x SC Espinho:
๐ฎ Gondomar wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Gondomar, you can win up to $1002.50!
๐ Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Gondomar x SC Espinho
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Analysis from Gondomar x SC Espinho for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 16 of January
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๐๏ธ Gondomar X SC Espinho – Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
When the best bet on Gondomar x SC Espinho is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 288046 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Gondomar x SC Espinho
Is betting on Gondomar worth it?
๐ต Gondomar: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 54.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $542.70
- And would lose other 460 times – losing -$460.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$82.70.
Is betting on draw worth it?
โช draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.14%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $553.50;
- And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$176.50.
Should you bet on SC Espinho?
๐ด SC Espinho: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.52%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.57. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $488.30
- And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$321.70.
Handicaps analysis for the match Gondomar x SC Espinho
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Gondomar
โฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Gondomar x SC Espinho
โ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Gondomar and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Gondomar.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Gondomar x SC Espinho
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
