📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Hamburg x St Pauli
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Analysis from Hamburg x St Pauli for the Germany Bundesliga II – 21 of January
🏟️ Hamburg X St Pauli – Germany Bundesliga II
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Hamburg x St Pauli right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290581 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Hamburg x St Pauli
Should you bet on Hamburg?
🔵 Hamburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 44.58%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.24. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 450 times – having a profit of $558.00;
- And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.
It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$8.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 16.52% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $416.50
- And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$413.50.
Is betting on St Pauli worth it?
🔴 St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.99. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $776.10;
- And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$166.10.
Handicaps analysis for the match Hamburg x St Pauli
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Hamburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Hamburg x St Pauli
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Hamburg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Hamburg.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Hamburg.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Hamburg x St Pauli
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves