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Helmond Sport x Top Oss Betting tips for January 21 in Netherlands Eerste Divisie

Our betting tip for Helmond Sport x Top Oss, Friday, 21/1/2022
๐Ÿ“… 21/1/2022
19:00
Helmond Sport
2.45
X
3.40
Top Oss
2.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Helmond Sport x Top Oss:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Top Oss wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Top Oss, you can win up to $1250.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Helmond Sport x Top Oss

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Analysis from Helmond Sport x Top Oss for the Netherlands Eerste Divisie – 21 of January

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Helmond Sport X Top Oss – Netherlands Eerste Divisie
๐Ÿ“… 21 of January, 2022 – 19:00
๐Ÿ”ต Helmond Sport – Winning probability: 15.53% | Fair line: 6.44
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.30% | Fair line: 4.69
๐Ÿ”ด Top Oss – Winning probability: 63.17% | Fair line: 1.58
โš– Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Helmond Sport
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

When the best bet on Helmond Sport x Top Oss is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290581 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Helmond Sport x Top Oss

Is it a good idea to bet on Helmond Sport?

๐Ÿ”ต Helmond Sport: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.53%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $232.00
  • And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$608.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.3% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 210 times – profiting $504.00;
  • And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$286.00.

Is it worth betting on Top Oss?

๐Ÿ”ด Top Oss: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 63.17% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 630 times – this would give you a profit of $945.00
  • And would lose other 370 times – losing -$370.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$575.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Helmond Sport x Top Oss

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

โš– Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Helmond Sport
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Helmond Sport x Top Oss

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Helmond Sport and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Helmond Sport.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Top Oss.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Helmond Sport x Top Oss

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves