📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone
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Analysis from Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone for the Scotland FA Cup – 22 of January
🏟️ Kelty Hearts X St Johnstone – Scotland FA Cup
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290605 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone
Is it a good idea to bet on Kelty Hearts?
🔵 Kelty Hearts: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $1050.00
- And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$260.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.08%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $441.00
- And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$419.00.
Should you bet on St Johnstone?
🔴 St Johnstone: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 64.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 650 times – profiting $312.00;
- And would lose other 350 times – having a loss of -$350.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$38.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Kelty Hearts
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Kelty Hearts and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.0 Kelty Hearts.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Kelty Hearts.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Kelty Hearts x St Johnstone
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves