📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria
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Analysis from Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria for the Spain Tercera Group 4 – 19 of January
🏟️ Lagun Onak X CD Vitoria – Spain Tercera Group 4
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 289909 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria
Is betting on Lagun Onak worth it?
🔵 Lagun Onak: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.14% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $409.50
- And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$380.50.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 410 times – having a profit of $738.00;
- And would lose other 590 times – having a loss of -$590.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$148.00.
Is betting on CD Vitoria worth it?
🔴 CD Vitoria: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.09% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $494.00
- And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$126.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Lagun Onak
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Lagun Onak and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Lagun Onak.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 CD Vitoria.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lagun Onak x CD Vitoria
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves