📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Leamington x AFC Fylde
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Analysis from Leamington x AFC Fylde for the England National League North – 15 of January
🏟️ Leamington X AFC Fylde – England National League North
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Leamington x AFC Fylde right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Leamington x AFC Fylde
Should you bet on Leamington?
🔵 Leamington: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – profiting $404.30;
- And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$465.70.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.33% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $700.00
- And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$20.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on AFC Fylde?
🔴 AFC Fylde: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 58.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.74. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 590 times – this would give you a profit of $436.60
- And would have lost other 410 times – with a loss of -$410.00 because of them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$26.60, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Handicaps analysis for the match Leamington x AFC Fylde
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Leamington
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Leamington x AFC Fylde
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Leamington and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Leamington.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Leamington.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leamington x AFC Fylde
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves