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22/1/2022 07:00 |
 Macarthur FC2.10 |
X 3.38 |
Western Sydney Wanderers  3.23 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers:
๐ฎ Western Sydney Wanderers wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Western Sydney Wanderers, you can win up to $1612.50!
๐ Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers
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Analysis from Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers for the Australia A-League – 22 of January
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๐๏ธ Macarthur FC X Western Sydney Wanderers – Australia A-League |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 290605 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers
Should you bet on Macarthur FC?
๐ต Macarthur FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 44.36% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 440 times – profiting $484.00;
- And would have lost other 560 times – with a loss of -$560.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$76.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.4% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.38. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $380.00
- And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐ฐ-$460.00.
Should you bet on Western Sydney Wanderers?
๐ด Western Sydney Wanderers: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.23. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 390 times – this would give you a profit of $867.75
- And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$257.75.
Handicaps analysis for the match Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
โ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Macarthur FC
โฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Macarthur FC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Macarthur FC.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Western Sydney Wanderers.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Macarthur FC x Western Sydney Wanderers
โฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
