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15/1/2022 12:00 |
 Man Utd Women1.11 |
X 7.50 |
Birmingham Women  17.00 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women:
๐ฎ Man Utd Women wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Man Utd Women, you can win up to $555.00!
๐ Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women
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Analysis from Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women for the England Super League Women – 15 of January
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๐๏ธ Man Utd Women X Birmingham Women – England Super League Women |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women
Is it a good idea to bet on Man Utd Women?
๐ต Man Utd Women: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 99.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 1000 times – having a profit of $110.00;
- And would lose other 0 times – losing -$0.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$110.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 0.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 0 times – this would give you a profit of $0.00
- And would have lost other 1000 times – with a loss of -$1000.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$1000.00.
Should you bet on Birmingham Women?
๐ด Birmingham Women: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 0.12%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 17.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 0 times – having a profit of $0.00;
- And would have lost other 1000 times – with a loss of -$1000.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐ฐ-$1000.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
โ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Man Utd Women
โฝ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women
โ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 Man Utd Women and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -2.25 Man Utd Women.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 2.25 Birmingham Women.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Man Utd Women x Birmingham Women
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.25 goals.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
