📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Modena x Fermana
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Analysis from Modena x Fermana for the Italy Serie C Group B – 22 of January
🏟️ Modena X Fermana – Italy Serie C Group B
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Modena x Fermana right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290605 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Modena x Fermana
Is it worth betting on Modena?
🔵 Modena: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 77.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 770 times – profiting $308.00;
- And would have lost other 230 times – with a loss of -$230.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$78.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.16%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.12. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 140 times – profiting $436.80;
- And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$423.20.
Is betting on Fermana worth it?
🔴 Fermana: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.4% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.27. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $501.60;
- And would have lost other 920 times – with a loss of -$920.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$418.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match Modena x Fermana
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Modena
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Modena x Fermana
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 Modena, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Modena.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Modena x Fermana
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves