📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Rende x Gelbison
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Analysis from Rende x Gelbison for the Italy Serie D – 19 of January
🏟️ Rende X Gelbison – Italy Serie D
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Rende x Gelbison right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289741 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Rende x Gelbison
Is it a good idea to bet on Rende?
🔵 Rende: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.31% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – profiting $416.00;
- And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$454.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 380 times – profiting $874.00;
- And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$254.00.
Is betting on Gelbison worth it?
🔴 Gelbison: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 48.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $367.50
- And would lose other 510 times – having a loss of -$510.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$142.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Rende x Gelbison
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Rende
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Rende x Gelbison
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Rende, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Rende.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Rende.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Rende x Gelbison
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves