📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Sassuolo x Cagliari
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Analysis from Sassuolo x Cagliari for the Coppa Italia – 19 of January
🏟️ Sassuolo X Cagliari – Coppa Italia
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sassuolo x Cagliari right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289741 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Sassuolo x Cagliari
Is it a good idea to bet on Sassuolo?
🔵 Sassuolo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 90.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 900 times – profiting $562.50;
- And would lose other 100 times – losing -$100.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$462.50.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 4.2%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.08. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 40 times – profiting $123.00;
- And would lose other 960 times – losing -$960.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$837.00.
Should you bet on Cagliari?
🔴 Cagliari: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.69. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 50 times – having a profit of $184.50;
- And would lose other 950 times – losing -$950.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$765.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Sassuolo x Cagliari
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Sassuolo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sassuolo x Cagliari
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Sassuolo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Sassuolo.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Sassuolo.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sassuolo x Cagliari
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves