📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Spal x Benevento
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Analysis from Spal x Benevento for the Italy Serie B – 26 of December
🏟️ Spal X Benevento – Italy Serie B
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Spal x Beneventoright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 281997 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Spal x Benevento
Is it a good idea to bet on Spal?
🔵 Spal: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.92%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $478.50;
- And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$231.50.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $713.00
- And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$23.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Should you bet on Benevento?
🔴 Benevento: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.41% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 400 times – this would give you a profit of $580.00
- And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.
That is why bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$20.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Spal x Benevento
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Spal
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Spal x Benevento
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Spal, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Spal.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Benevento.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Spal x Benevento
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves