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22/1/2022 15:00 |
 Sunderland1.86 |
X 3.60 |
Portsmouth  3.85 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sunderland x Portsmouth:
๐ฎ Tied Match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1800.00!
๐ Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Sunderland x Portsmouth
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Analysis from Sunderland x Portsmouth for the England League 1 – 22 of January
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๐๏ธ Sunderland X Portsmouth – England League 1 |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sunderland x Portsmouth right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 290605 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Sunderland x Portsmouth
Should you bet on Sunderland?
๐ต Sunderland: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.86. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 380 times – having a profit of $326.80;
- And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$293.20.
Is betting on draw worth it?
โช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $1222.00;
- And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of ๐ฐ$692.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Portsmouth?
๐ด Portsmouth: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $427.50;
- And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$422.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Sunderland x Portsmouth
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Sunderland
โฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sunderland x Portsmouth
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Sunderland, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Sunderland.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sunderland x Portsmouth
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
