📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Brazil x Argentina
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Analysis from Brazil x Argentina for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 22 of November
🏟️ Brazil X Argentina – South America – World Cup Qualifying
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Brazil and Argentina.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024310 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Brazil x Argentina
Is it a good idea to bet on Brazil?
🔵 Brazil: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 420 times – profiting $567.00;
- And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$13.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $693.00;
- And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$23.00.
Is it worth betting on Argentina?
🔴 Argentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.57% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.99. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $517.40;
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$222.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Brazil x Argentina
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Brazil
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Brazil x Argentina
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Brazil and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Brazil. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Brazil x Argentina
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves