Brazil x Argentina Betting tips for November 22 in South America – World Cup Qualifying

Our betting tip for Brazil x Argentina, Wednesday, 22/11/2023

📅 22/11/2023 00:30

Brazil 2.35

X 3.10

Argentina 2.99

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Brazil x Argentina:

🔮 Brazil wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Brazil, you can win up to $1175.00!

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The main points for the tip for Brazil x Argentina: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Brazil in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-164.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Argentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $45.0. 👉 Argentina did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 9 matches as the home team, Brazil scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Argentina scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Brazil x Argentina, with Brazil as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Brazil conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Brazil is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 62.00% of possession. 👉 Argentina is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession. 👉 In the last 5 road matches, Argentina has not lost any of them.

📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Brazil x Argentina

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Analysis from Brazil x Argentina for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 22 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Brazil and Argentina.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024310 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Brazil x Argentina

Is it a good idea to bet on Brazil?

🔵 Brazil: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $567.00;
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$13.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $693.00;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$23.00.

Is it worth betting on Argentina?

🔴 Argentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.57% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.99. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $517.40;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$222.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Brazil x Argentina

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Brazil
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Brazil x Argentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Brazil and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Brazil. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Brazil x Argentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.