AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers Betting tips for September 15 in Kenya Premier League

Our betting tip for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers, Sunday, 15/9/2024

📅 15/9/2024 09:00

AFC Leopards 2.14

X 2.84

Posta Rangers 3.55

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers

The main points for the tip for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Posta Rangers in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 4 AFC Leopards matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers, with AFC Leopards as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.

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Analysis from AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers for the Kenya Premier League – 15 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1180290 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers

Is betting on AFC Leopards worth it?

🔵 AFC Leopards: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 43.58% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.14. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $501.60
• And would lose other 560 times – losing -$560.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$58.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.79% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.84. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $588.80
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$91.20.

Is betting on Posta Rangers worth it?

🔴 Posta Rangers: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.63%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $637.50;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$112.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 AFC Leopards
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 AFC Leopards, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 AFC Leopards.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Posta Rangers.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AFC Leopards x Posta Rangers

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.