America MG x Paysandu Betting tips for September 18 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for America MG x Paysandu, Wednesday, 18/9/2024

📅 18/9/2024 21:30

America MG 1.68

X 3.40

Paysandu 5.04

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for America MG x Paysandu:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for America MG x Paysandu

Important information for your tip for America MG x Paysandu: 👉 If you had bet $100 on America MG in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-162.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Paysandu in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 Paysandu matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Paysandu conceded at least 1 goal(s).

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on America MG x Paysandu?

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Analysis from America MG x Paysandu for the Brazil Serie B – 18 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for America MG x Paysandu right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1184048 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for America MG x Paysandu

Is betting on America MG worth it?

🔵 America MG: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.31% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.68. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 560 times – this would give you a profit of $380.80
• And would lose other 440 times – losing -$440.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$59.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $720.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Should you bet on Paysandu?

🔴 Paysandu: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.04. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $525.20
• And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$344.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match America MG x Paysandu

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 America MG
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for America MG x Paysandu

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 America MG, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 America MG.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Paysandu.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for America MG x Paysandu

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.