Flamengo x Penarol Betting tips for September 19 in Copa Libertadores
| 📅 19/9/2024 19:00 |
 Flamengo1.44 |
X 4.31 |
Penarol  7.00 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Flamengo x Penarol:
🔮 Penarol wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Penarol, you can win up to $3500.00!
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Important information for your tip for Flamengo x Penarol: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Flamengo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-25.0. |
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Analysis from Flamengo x Penarol for the Copa Libertadores – 19 of September
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🏟️ Flamengo X Penarol – Copa Libertadores |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Flamengo x Penarol right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1184054 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Flamengo x Penarol
Should you bet on Flamengo?
🔵 Flamengo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 62.09% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.44. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 620 times – profiting $272.80;
- And would lose other 380 times – losing -$380.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$107.20.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.29%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.31. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 120 times – profiting $397.20;
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$482.80.
Should you bet on Penarol?
🔴 Penarol: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 7.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $1560.00
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$820.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Flamengo x Penarol
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Flamengo
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Flamengo x Penarol
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Flamengo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Flamengo.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Penarol.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Flamengo x Penarol
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
