Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior Betting tips for September 26 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior, Thursday, 26/9/2024

📅 26/9/2024 22:30

Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.70

X 3.40

Junior 4.75

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior

Some important points for the tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Nacional Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $30.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Junior in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 Junior matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Junior.

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Analysis from Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior for the Colombia Primera A – 26 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1189012 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior

Should you bet on Atletico Nacional Medellin?

🔵 Atletico Nacional Medellin: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 60.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $420.00;
• And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$20.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.39% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $672.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$48.00.

Is betting on Junior worth it?

🔴 Junior: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 120 times – profiting $450.00;
• And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$430.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Atletico Nacional Medellin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Atletico Nacional Medellin and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Junior

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.