Coritiba x Goias Betting tips for September 27 in Brazil Serie B
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27/9/2024 21:30 |
 Coritiba1.85 |
X 3.20 |
Goias  4.20 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Coritiba x Goias:
๐ฎ Coritiba wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Coritiba, you can win up to $925.00!
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The main points for the tip for Coritiba x Goias: ๐ If you had bet $100 on Coritiba in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $62.0. |
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Analysis from Coritiba x Goias for the Brazil Serie B – 27 of September
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๐๏ธ Coritiba X Goias – Brazil Serie B |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Coritiba and Goias.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1189218 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Coritiba x Goias
Should you bet on Coritiba?
๐ต Coritiba: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.86% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 570 times – having a profit of $484.50;
- And would lose other 430 times – losing -$430.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of ๐ฐ$54.50.
Is betting on draw worth it?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.08% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $660.00
- And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐ฐ-$40.00.
Is it worth betting on Goias?
๐ด Goias: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.06% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $416.00
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$454.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Coritiba x Goias
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Coritiba
โฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Coritiba x Goias
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Coritiba, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Coritiba.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Coritiba x Goias
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
