Monaco x Montpellier Betting tips for September 28 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Monaco x Montpellier, Saturday, 28/9/2024

📅 28/9/2024 16:00

Monaco 1.40

X 4.54

Montpellier 6.40

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Monaco x Montpellier:

🔮 Monaco wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Monaco, you can win up to $700.00!

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Important information for your tip for Monaco x Montpellier: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Monaco in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $255.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Montpellier in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Monaco scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 9 Montpellier matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Monaco conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 9 matches as the away team, Montpellier conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Montpellier as away team: it comes from 5 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Monaco x Montpellier for the France Ligue 1 – 28 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Monaco x Montpellier right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1189524 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Monaco x Montpellier

Is it a good idea to bet on Monaco?

🔵 Monaco: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 93.7% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 940 times – having a profit of $376.00;
• And would lose other 60 times – losing -$60.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$316.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 3.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.54. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $106.20
• And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$863.80.

Should you bet on Montpellier?

🔴 Montpellier: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 30 times – profiting $162.00;
• And would lose other 970 times – losing -$970.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$808.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Monaco x Montpellier

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Monaco
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monaco x Montpellier

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Monaco, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Monaco.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Monaco.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monaco x Montpellier

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.