Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan Betting tips for September 29 in Poland Ekstraklasa

Our betting tip for Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 09:45

Korona Kielce 3.50

X 3.30

Lech Poznan 2.02

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1650.00!

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Important information for your tip for Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Korona Kielce in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-65.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lech Poznan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-89.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Korona Kielce scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Lech Poznan matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Korona Kielce conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Lech Poznan. 👉 Even as a visitor, Lech Poznan won the last 3 head-to-head matches Korona Kielce´s territory

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Analysis from Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan for the Poland Ekstraklasa – 29 of September

When the best bet on Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan

Is it a good idea to bet on Korona Kielce?

🔵 Korona Kielce: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 150 times – this would give you a profit of $375.00
• And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$475.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $736.00
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$56.00.

Should you bet on Lech Poznan?

🔴 Lech Poznan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.02. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $540.60
• And would lose other 470 times – losing -$470.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$70.60 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Korona Kielce
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Korona Kielce and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Korona Kielce.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Lech Poznan.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Korona Kielce x Lech Poznan

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.