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Home » Predictions » Others » Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron Betting tips for September 29 in Argentina Nacional B
Sunday, 29 September 2024, 16h00 Argentina Nacional B
Gimnasia y Tiro Gimnasia y Tiro
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 38% 1 X 2
Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron
ODD: @2.7 Don't miss this prediction!

Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron Betting tips for September 29 in Argentina Nacional B

Our betting tip for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron, Sunday, 29/9/2024
📅 29/9/2024
16:00
Gimnasia y Tiro Gimnasia y Tiro
2.02
X
2.70
Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron
4.27

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1350.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Gimnasia y Tiro in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $695.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Moron in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Gimnasia y Tiro did not concede a goal in the last 5 matches as home team.
👉 Deportivo Moron did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Gimnasia y Tiro scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Gimnasia y Tiro matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Deportivo Moron conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Gimnasia y Tiro is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 It is not a good time for Deportivo Moron as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Summary

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Analysis from Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron for the Argentina Nacional B – 29 of September

🏟️ Gimnasia y Tiro X Deportivo Moron – Argentina Nacional B
📅 29 of September, 2024 – 16:00
🔵 Gimnasia y Tiro – Winning probability: 49.24% | Fair line: 2.03
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 38.59% | Fair line: 2.59
🔴 Deportivo Moron – Winning probability: 12.17% | Fair line: 8.22
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Gimnasia y Tiro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1190630 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron

Is betting on Gimnasia y Tiro worth it?

🔵 Gimnasia y Tiro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 49.24% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.02. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $499.80
  • And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$10.20.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $663.00;
  • And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$53.00.

Should you bet on Deportivo Moron?

🔴 Deportivo Moron: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.27. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $392.40;
  • And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$487.60.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Gimnasia y Tiro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Gimnasia y Tiro and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Gimnasia y Tiro.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Gimnasia y Tiro.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Gimnasia y Tiro x Deportivo Moron

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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