PSV x Sporting Betting tips for October 1 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for PSV x Sporting, Tuesday, 1/10/2024

📅 1/10/2024 16:00

PSV 2.34

X 3.67

Sporting 2.70

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for PSV x Sporting:

🔮 PSV wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on PSV, you can win up to $1170.00!

🔮 Sporting wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Sporting, you can win up to $1350.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for PSV x Sporting: 👉 If you had bet $100 on PSV in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $12.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sporting in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-21.0. 👉 Sporting did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 9 matches as the home team, PSV scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Sporting scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Sporting matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 PSV did not receive any yellow cards in the last 3 matches as the home team. 👉 PSV is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 6 home matches, it had at least 61.00% of possession. 👉 Sporting is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 away matches, it had at least 62.00% of possession. 👉 PSV is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Sporting is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 4 wins in a row in its last road matches.

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Analysis from PSV x Sporting for the UEFA Champions League – 1 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for PSV x Sporting right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1192611 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for PSV x Sporting

Is betting on PSV worth it?

🔵 PSV: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 45.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.34. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $603.00
• And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$53.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.67. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – profiting $373.80;
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$486.20.

Is it worth betting on Sporting?

🔴 Sporting: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.99% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $697.00
• And would have lost other 590 times – with a loss of -$590.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$107.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match PSV x Sporting

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 PSV
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for PSV x Sporting

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 PSV, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 PSV.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 PSV.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for PSV x Sporting

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.