Junior x Independiente Medellin Betting tips for October 2 in Colombia Cup

Our betting tip for Junior x Independiente Medellin, Wednesday, 2/10/2024

📅 2/10/2024 22:00

Junior 1.85

X 3.20

Independiente Medellin 4.22

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Junior x Independiente Medellin:

🔮 Junior wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Junior, you can win up to $925.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Junior x Independiente Medellin: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Junior in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-315.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Independiente Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-110.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Junior scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Independiente Medellin, Junior scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Independiente Medellin matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Junior conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Junior is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Independiente Medellin has not lost any of them. 👉 Junior has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Independiente Medellin playing at home.

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Analysis from Junior x Independiente Medellin for the Colombia Cup – 2 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Junior x Independiente Medellin right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1193870 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Junior x Independiente Medellin

Is betting on Junior worth it?

🔵 Junior: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 61.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 620 times – having a profit of $527.00;
• And would lose other 380 times – losing -$380.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$147.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.96% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $352.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$488.00.

Is betting on Independiente Medellin worth it?

🔴 Independiente Medellin: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.22. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $708.40;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$71.60. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Junior x Independiente Medellin

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Junior
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Junior x Independiente Medellin

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Junior, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Junior.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Junior x Independiente Medellin

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.