Atlante x Tapatio Betting tips for October 4 in Mexico Liga de Expansion

Our betting tip for Atlante x Tapatio, Friday, 4/10/2024

📅 4/10/2024 22:00

Atlante 1.50

X 4.00

Tapatio 5.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atlante x Tapatio:

🔮 Atlante wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atlante, you can win up to $750.00!

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The main points for the tip for Atlante x Tapatio: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Tapatio in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $75.0. 👉 Atlante did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atlante scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Tapatio scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Tapatio, Atlante scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Tapatio matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Tapatio conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Atlante is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Atlante has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Tapatio playing at home.

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Analysis from Atlante x Tapatio for the Mexico Liga de Expansion – 4 of October

When the best bet on Atlante x Tapatio is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1194241 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atlante x Tapatio

Is it worth betting on Atlante?

🔵 Atlante: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 77.26% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 770 times – this would give you a profit of $385.00
• And would lose other 230 times – having a loss of -$230.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$155.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.57%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $480.00;
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$360.00.

Is it worth betting on Tapatio?

🔴 Tapatio: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 7.18% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $315.00
• And would lose other 930 times – losing -$930.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$615.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atlante x Tapatio

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Atlante
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atlante x Tapatio

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 Atlante and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Atlante.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Atlante.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atlante x Tapatio

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.