Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo Betting tips for October 5 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo, Saturday, 5/10/2024

📅 5/10/2024 16:30

Athletico Paranaense 2.90

X 3.25

Botafogo 2.32

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo

The main points for the tip for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Athletico Paranaense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-105.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-265.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Athletico Paranaense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Botafogo, Athletico Paranaense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Botafogo matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 road matches, Botafogo has not lost any of them. 👉 Athletico Paranaense has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Botafogo playing at home.

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Analysis from Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo for the Brazil Serie A – 5 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Athletico Paranaense and Botafogo.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1194677 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo

Should you bet on Athletico Paranaense?

🔵 Athletico Paranaense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.23% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $646.00;
• And would have lost other 660 times – with a loss of -$660.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$14.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $562.50
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$187.50.

Is it worth betting on Botafogo?

🔴 Botafogo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 40.36%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.32. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 400 times – profiting $528.00;
• And would lose other 600 times – having a loss of -$600.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$72.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Athletico Paranaense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Athletico Paranaense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Athletico Paranaense. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Athletico Paranaense x Botafogo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.