Botafogo SP x Guarani Betting tips for October 9 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for Botafogo SP x Guarani, Wednesday, 9/10/2024

📅 9/10/2024 20:00

Botafogo SP 2.30

X 2.78

Guarani 3.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Botafogo SP x Guarani:

🔮 Guarani wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Guarani, you can win up to $1750.00!

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Important information for your tip for Botafogo SP x Guarani: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo SP in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $50.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Guarani in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-160.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Guarani, Botafogo SP scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Botafogo SP matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Guarani conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Botafogo SP has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Guarani playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Guarani as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Botafogo SP x Guarani for the Brazil Serie B – 9 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Botafogo SP and Guarani.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1197596 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Botafogo SP x Guarani

Should you bet on Botafogo SP?

🔵 Botafogo SP: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.56% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $416.00
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$264.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.81%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.78. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $569.60;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$110.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on Guarani?

🔴 Guarani: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 36.63% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $925.00
• And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$295.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Botafogo SP x Guarani

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Botafogo SP
⚽ Expected goals: 1.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Botafogo SP x Guarani

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Botafogo SP and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Botafogo SP.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Guarani.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Botafogo SP x Guarani

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 1.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.