Avai x America MG Betting tips for October 11 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for Avai x America MG, Friday, 11/10/2024

📅 11/10/2024 21:00

Avai 2.45

X 2.88

America MG 3.04

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Avai x America MG:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Avai x America MG

The main points for the tip for Avai x America MG: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Avai in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $74.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on America MG in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-295.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, America MG scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against America MG, Avai scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 Avai matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Avai x America MG, with Avai as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Avai has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against America MG.

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Analysis from Avai x America MG for the Brazil Serie B – 11 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Avai x America MG right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1198569 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Avai x America MG

Is it a good idea to bet on Avai?

🔵 Avai: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.24% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $478.50
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$191.50.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 34.63%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.88. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 350 times – profiting $658.00;
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$8.00.

Should you bet on America MG?

🔴 America MG: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.04. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $652.80;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$27.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Avai x America MG

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Avai
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Avai x America MG

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Avai and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Avai.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 America MG.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Avai x America MG

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.