Fulham x Aston Villa Betting tips for October 19 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Fulham x Aston Villa, Saturday, 19/10/2024

📅 19/10/2024 14:00

Fulham 2.45

X 3.50

Aston Villa 2.75

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Fulham x Aston Villa:

🔮 Fulham wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fulham, you can win up to $1225.00!

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Important information for your tip for Fulham x Aston Villa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fulham in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-35.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $265.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Fulham scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Aston Villa scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Aston Villa matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Fulham conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 road matches, Aston Villa has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Fulham x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 19 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Fulham x Aston Villa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1203916 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Fulham x Aston Villa

Should you bet on Fulham?

🔵 Fulham: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.33%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 470 times – this would give you a profit of $681.50
• And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$151.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 21.56%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $550.00;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$230.00.

Is betting on Aston Villa worth it?

🔴 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.11% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $542.50
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$147.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Fulham x Aston Villa

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Fulham
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fulham x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Fulham, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Fulham.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Aston Villa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fulham x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.