Bournemouth x Arsenal Betting tips for October 19 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Bournemouth x Arsenal, Saturday, 19/10/2024

📅 19/10/2024 16:30

Bournemouth 4.92

X 4.25

Arsenal 1.61

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Bournemouth x Arsenal:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Bournemouth x Arsenal: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bournemouth in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-46.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 4 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $15.0. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Bournemouth x Arsenal, with Bournemouth as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Bournemouth conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Bournemouth conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Arsenal. 👉 In the last 4 road matches, Arsenal has not lost any of them. 👉 Even as a visitor, Arsenal won the last 3 head-to-head matches Bournemouth´s territory

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Analysis from Bournemouth x Arsenal for the England Premier League – 19 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Bournemouth x Arsenal right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1203336 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Arsenal

Is betting on Bournemouth worth it?

🔵 Bournemouth: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.92. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 70 times – having a profit of $274.40;
• And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$655.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.79% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 350 times – profiting $1137.50;
• And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$487.50.

Is it worth betting on Arsenal?

🔴 Arsenal: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 58.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.61. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 590 times – this would give you a profit of $359.90
• And would have lost other 410 times – with a loss of -$410.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$50.10.

Handicaps analysis for the match Bournemouth x Arsenal

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Bournemouth
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Arsenal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Bournemouth, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Bournemouth.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bournemouth x Arsenal

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.