Deportes Tolima x Alianza Betting tips for October 20 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Deportes Tolima x Alianza, Sunday, 20/10/2024

📅 20/10/2024 00:10

Deportes Tolima 1.40

X 4.10

Alianza 7.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Deportes Tolima x Alianza:

🔮 Deportes Tolima wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Deportes Tolima, you can win up to $700.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Deportes Tolima x Alianza: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportes Tolima in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-355.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Alianza in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Alianza did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 3 Alianza matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Alianza conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Alianza as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Deportes Tolima x Alianza?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Deportes Tolima x Alianza:

Analysis from Deportes Tolima x Alianza for the Colombia Primera A – 20 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Deportes Tolima x Alianza right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1203916 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Deportes Tolima x Alianza

Is betting on Deportes Tolima worth it?

🔵 Deportes Tolima: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 81.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 810 times – this would give you a profit of $324.00
• And would have lost other 190 times – with a loss of -$190.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$134.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $434.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$426.00.

Is betting on Alianza worth it?

🔴 Alianza: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 7.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $240.00
• And would lose other 960 times – having a loss of -$960.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$720.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Deportes Tolima x Alianza

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Deportes Tolima
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Deportes Tolima x Alianza

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 Deportes Tolima, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Deportes Tolima.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Deportes Tolima.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Deportes Tolima x Alianza

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.