Toluca x Puebla Betting tips for October 23 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Toluca x Puebla, Wednesday, 23/10/2024

📅 23/10/2024 03:05

Toluca 1.38

X 4.60

Puebla 6.85

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Toluca x Puebla:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $690.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Toluca x Puebla: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $68.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Puebla in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $200.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Toluca scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Puebla matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Puebla conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Toluca conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Puebla.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Toluca x Puebla?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Toluca x Puebla:

Analysis from Toluca x Puebla for the Mexico Liga MX – 23 of October

When the best bet on Toluca x Puebla is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1207665 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Toluca x Puebla

Is betting on Toluca worth it?

🔵 Toluca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 79.11% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 790 times – profiting $300.20;
• And would lose other 210 times – losing -$210.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$90.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $576.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$264.00.

Is betting on Puebla worth it?

🔴 Puebla: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 50 times – this would give you a profit of $292.50
• And would have lost other 950 times – with a loss of -$950.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$657.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Toluca x Puebla

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Toluca
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Toluca x Puebla

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Toluca and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Toluca.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Toluca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Toluca x Puebla

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.