Paysandu x Coritiba Betting tips for October 23 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for Paysandu x Coritiba, Wednesday, 23/10/2024

📅 23/10/2024 22:30

Paysandu 2.37

X 3.00

Coritiba 3.04

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Paysandu x Coritiba:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Paysandu x Coritiba

Important information for your tip for Paysandu x Coritiba: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Paysandu in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $37.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Coritiba in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $210.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Coritiba scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Paysandu matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Paysandu x Coritiba?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Paysandu x Coritiba:

Analysis from Paysandu x Coritiba for the Brazil Serie B – 23 of October

When the best bet on Paysandu x Coritiba is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1207668 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Paysandu x Coritiba

Is betting on Paysandu worth it?

🔵 Paysandu: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 43.57% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.37. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 440 times – having a profit of $602.80;
• And would lose other 560 times – losing -$560.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$42.80, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.56% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $560.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Should you bet on Coritiba?

🔴 Coritiba: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.04. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $591.60;
• And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$118.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Paysandu x Coritiba

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Paysandu
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Paysandu x Coritiba

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Paysandu, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Paysandu.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Paysandu x Coritiba

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.