Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund Betting tips for October 26 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund, Saturday, 26/10/2024

📅 26/10/2024 13:30

Augsburg 3.65

X 3.98

Borussia Dortmund 1.87

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund:

🔮 Augsburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Augsburg, you can win up to $1825.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $271.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Borussia Dortmund matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Borussia Dortmund conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Borussia Dortmund. 👉 It is not a good time for Borussia Dortmund as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund for the Germany Bundesliga I – 26 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1209027 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund

Is it worth betting on Augsburg?

🔵 Augsburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.29%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $821.50;
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$131.50.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.98. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $566.20
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$243.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔴 Borussia Dortmund: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 49.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.87. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 490 times – profiting $426.30;
• And would lose other 510 times – having a loss of -$510.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$83.70.

Handicaps analysis for the match Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Augsburg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Augsburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Augsburg.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Augsburg.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Augsburg x Borussia Dortmund

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.25 goals.