Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno Betting tips for October 28 in Paraguay Division Profesional

Our betting tip for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno, Monday, 28/10/2024

📅 28/10/2024 22:30

Guarani Asuncion 2.00

X 3.10

Sportivo Luqueno 3.48

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno

The main points for the tip for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Guarani Asuncion in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-343.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sportivo Luqueno in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-103.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Sportivo Luqueno scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 Guarani Asuncion matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Guarani Asuncion conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Sportivo Luqueno. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Sportivo Luqueno has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno for the Paraguay Division Profesional – 28 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1209557 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno

Is betting on Guarani Asuncion worth it?

🔵 Guarani Asuncion: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 48.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $480.00;
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$40.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.21% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $588.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$132.00.

Is betting on Sportivo Luqueno worth it?

🔴 Sportivo Luqueno: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.38%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $570.40;
• And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$199.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Guarani Asuncion
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Guarani Asuncion and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Guarani Asuncion.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guarani Asuncion x Sportivo Luqueno

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.