FC Porto x Moreirense Betting tips for October 31 in Portugal League Cup

Our betting tip for FC Porto x Moreirense, Thursday, 31/10/2024

📅 31/10/2024 20:45

FC Porto 1.25

X 5.00

Moreirense 10.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for FC Porto x Moreirense:

🔮 FC Porto wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on FC Porto, you can win up to $625.00!

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Important information for your tip for FC Porto x Moreirense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Porto in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $20.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Moreirense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, FC Porto scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Moreirense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Moreirense, FC Porto scored at least 3 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between FC Porto x Moreirense, with FC Porto as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 FC Porto has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Moreirense.

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Analysis from FC Porto x Moreirense for the Portugal League Cup – 31 of October

When the best bet on FC Porto x Moreirense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1212778 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for FC Porto x Moreirense

Is it worth betting on FC Porto?

🔵 FC Porto: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 96.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 960 times – profiting $240.00;
• And would lose other 40 times – having a loss of -$40.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$200.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.96% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $120.00
• And would lose other 970 times – losing -$970.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$850.00.

Is it worth betting on Moreirense?

🔴 Moreirense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 0.67% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 10.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $95.00;
• And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$895.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match FC Porto x Moreirense

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 4.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for FC Porto x Moreirense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 FC Porto and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 FC Porto.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 FC Porto.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for FC Porto x Moreirense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 4.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.