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Home » Predictions » English Premier League » Newcastle x Arsenal Betting tips for November 2 in England Premier League
Saturday, 02 November 2024, 12h30 England Premier League
Newcastle Newcastle
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 32% 1 X 2
Arsenal Arsenal
ODD: @3.7 Don't miss this prediction!

Newcastle x Arsenal Betting tips for November 2 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Arsenal, Saturday, 2/11/2024
📅 2/11/2024
12:30
Newcastle Newcastle
3.70
X
3.70
Arsenal Arsenal
1.95

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Newcastle x Arsenal:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1850.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Some important points for the tip for Newcastle x Arsenal:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $102.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-122.0.
👉 In the last 4 Newcastle matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Newcastle x Arsenal, with Newcastle as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.

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Summary

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Newcastle x Arsenal?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Newcastle x Arsenal for the England Premier League – 2 of November

🏟️ Newcastle X Arsenal – England Premier League
📅 2 of November, 2024 – 12:30
🔵 Newcastle – Winning probability: 26.07% | Fair line: 3.84
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 32.78% | Fair line: 3.05
🔴 Arsenal – Winning probability: 41.15% | Fair line: 2.43
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

When the best bet on Newcastle x Arsenal is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1213968 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Newcastle x Arsenal

Is it a good idea to bet on Newcastle?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 260 times – profiting $702.00;
  • And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$38.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.78%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $891.00;
  • And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$221.00.

Is it worth betting on Arsenal?

🔴 Arsenal: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 41.15% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $389.50
  • And would lose other 590 times – losing -$590.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$200.50.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Arsenal

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Arsenal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Newcastle and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Newcastle. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Arsenal

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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