Lanus x Boca Juniors Betting tips for November 3 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Lanus x Boca Juniors, Sunday, 3/11/2024

📅 3/11/2024 22:30

Lanus 2.54

X 3.00

Boca Juniors 2.78

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lanus x Boca Juniors:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Lanus x Boca Juniors: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lanus in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Boca Juniors in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Lanus did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 6 Lanus matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Boca Juniors conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Lanus conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Boca Juniors. 👉 It is not a good time for Boca Juniors as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Lanus x Boca Juniors for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 3 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Lanus x Boca Juniors right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1214939 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lanus x Boca Juniors

Is betting on Lanus worth it?

🔵 Lanus: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.54. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $492.80;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$187.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $720.00
• And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$80.00.

Should you bet on Boca Juniors?

🔴 Boca Juniors: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.78. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $569.60;
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$110.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lanus x Boca Juniors

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Lanus
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lanus x Boca Juniors

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Lanus and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Lanus.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lanus x Boca Juniors

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.