Botafogo x Vasco da Gama Betting tips for November 6 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama, Wednesday, 6/11/2024

📅 6/11/2024 00:30

Botafogo 1.46

X 4.20

Vasco da Gama 6.45

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama:

🔮 Botafogo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Botafogo, you can win up to $730.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-210.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Vasco da Gama in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Vasco da Gama, Botafogo scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Vasco da Gama conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Botafogo is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.

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Analysis from Botafogo x Vasco da Gama for the Brazil Serie A – 6 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1217445 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama

Is it worth betting on Botafogo?

🔵 Botafogo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 88.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.46. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 880 times – having a profit of $404.80;
• And would lose other 120 times – having a loss of -$120.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$284.80.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 8.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $256.00;
• And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$664.00.

Is it worth betting on Vasco da Gama?

🔴 Vasco da Gama: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – profiting $163.50;
• And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$806.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Botafogo x Vasco da Gama

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Botafogo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Botafogo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Botafogo.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Botafogo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Botafogo x Vasco da Gama

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.