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Home » Predictions » Others » Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno Betting tips for November 10 in Paraguay Division Profesional
Sunday, 10 November 2024, 21h00 Paraguay Division Profesional
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 33% 1 X 2
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
ODD: @3.08 Don't miss this prediction!

Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno Betting tips for November 10 in Paraguay Division Profesional

Our betting tip for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno, Sunday, 10/11/2024
📅 10/11/2024
21:00
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
3.55
X
3.08
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
2.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1540.00!

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Important information for your tip for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional Asuncion in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $463.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro Porteno in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-163.0.
👉 Playing as the home team, Nacional Asuncion conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Cerro Porteno.

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Summary

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Analysis from Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno for the Paraguay Division Profesional – 10 of November

🏟️ Nacional Asuncion X Cerro Porteno – Paraguay Division Profesional
📅 10 of November, 2024 – 21:00
🔵 Nacional Asuncion – Winning probability: 17.41% | Fair line: 5.75
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 33.85% | Fair line: 2.95
🔴 Cerro Porteno – Winning probability: 48.74% | Fair line: 2.05
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Nacional Asuncion
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.50 corner kicks

When the best bet on Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1219192 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

Is betting on Nacional Asuncion worth it?

🔵 Nacional Asuncion: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.55. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 170 times – profiting $433.50;
  • And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$396.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.85% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.08. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $707.20
  • And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$47.20.

Should you bet on Cerro Porteno?

🔴 Cerro Porteno: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 48.74% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 490 times – profiting $490.00;
  • And would lose other 510 times – having a loss of -$510.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$20.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Nacional Asuncion
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Nacional Asuncion, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Nacional Asuncion.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Nacional Asuncion.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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