Danubio x Cerro Betting tips for November 14 in Uruguay Clausura

Our betting tip for Danubio x Cerro, Thursday, 14/11/2024

📅 14/11/2024 12:45

Danubio 2.02

X 3.10

Cerro 3.71

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Danubio x Cerro:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Danubio x Cerro

The main points for the tip for Danubio x Cerro: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Danubio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $136.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $185.0. 👉 In the last 4 Danubio matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Danubio x Cerro, with Danubio as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Cerro conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Danubio has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Cerro playing at home.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Danubio x Cerro?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Danubio x Cerro for the Uruguay Clausura – 14 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Danubio x Cerro right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1221188 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Danubio x Cerro

Should you bet on Danubio?

🔵 Danubio: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 49.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.02. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 500 times – having a profit of $510.00;
• And would lose other 500 times – having a loss of -$500.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$10.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $651.00;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$39.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Should you bet on Cerro?

🔴 Cerro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.07% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.71. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $514.90
• And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$295.10.

Handicaps analysis for the match Danubio x Cerro

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Danubio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Danubio x Cerro

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Danubio and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Danubio.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Danubio.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Danubio x Cerro

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.