Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol Betting tips for November 14 in Uruguay Clausura

Our betting tip for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol, Thursday, 14/11/2024

📅 14/11/2024 22:30

Montevideo Wanderers 5.00

X 3.65

Penarol 1.62

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol:

🔮 Penarol wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Penarol, you can win up to $810.00!

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Important information for your tip for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Montevideo Wanderers in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Penarol in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $45.0. 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol, with Montevideo Wanderers as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Montevideo Wanderers conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Montevideo Wanderers has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Penarol playing at home.

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Analysis from Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol for the Uruguay Clausura – 14 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1221435 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol

Is it a good idea to bet on Montevideo Wanderers?

🔵 Montevideo Wanderers: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.29%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 70 times – profiting $280.00;
• And would lose other 930 times – losing -$930.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$650.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $371.00
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$489.00.

Is betting on Penarol worth it?

🔴 Penarol: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 79.02%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.62. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 790 times – having a profit of $489.80;
• And would have lost other 210 times – with a loss of -$210.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$279.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Montevideo Wanderers
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Montevideo Wanderers, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Montevideo Wanderers.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Montevideo Wanderers x Penarol

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.