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Home » Predictions » Sarmiento x Platense Betting tips for November 27 in Argentina Liga Profesional
Wednesday, 27 November 2024, 00h15 Argentina Liga Profesional
Sarmiento Sarmiento
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 41% 1 X 2
Platense Platense
ODD: @2.81 Don't miss this prediction!

Sarmiento x Platense Betting tips for November 27 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Sarmiento x Platense, Wednesday, 27/11/2024
📅 27/11/2024
00:15
Sarmiento Sarmiento
2.75
X
2.81
Platense Platense
2.62

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sarmiento x Platense:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1405.00!

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Important information for your tip for Sarmiento x Platense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sarmiento in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Platense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 Platense did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 4 Sarmiento matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 Platense matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 road matches, Platense has not lost any of them.

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Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Sarmiento x Platense?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Sarmiento x Platense, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Sarmiento x Platense for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 27 of November

🏟️ Sarmiento X Platense – Argentina Liga Profesional
📅 27 of November, 2024 – 00:15
🔵 Sarmiento – Winning probability: 18.00% | Fair line: 5.55
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 41.78% | Fair line: 2.39
🔴 Platense – Winning probability: 40.21% | Fair line: 2.49
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Sarmiento
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sarmiento x Platense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1226746 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sarmiento x Platense

Is it worth betting on Sarmiento?

🔵 Sarmiento: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.0%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $315.00;
  • And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$505.00.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.81. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 420 times – profiting $760.20;
  • And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$180.20.

Is betting on Platense worth it?

🔴 Platense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 40.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.62. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 400 times – this would give you a profit of $648.00
  • And would lose other 600 times – having a loss of -$600.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$48.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Sarmiento x Platense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Sarmiento
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sarmiento x Platense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Sarmiento, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Sarmiento.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sarmiento x Platense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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