Malacateco x Xinabajul Betting tips for December 1 in Guatemala Liga Nacional

Our betting tip for Malacateco x Xinabajul, Sunday, 1/12/2024

📅 1/12/2024 01:00

Malacateco 1.75

X 3.30

Xinabajul 4.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Malacateco x Xinabajul:

🔮 Malacateco wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Malacateco, you can win up to $875.00!

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Important information for your tip for Malacateco x Xinabajul: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Malacateco in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $627.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Xinabajul in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Malacateco did not concede a goal in the last 7 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Malacateco scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Xinabajul, Malacateco scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Malacateco is good playing home: it has 6 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Malacateco has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Xinabajul playing at home.

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Analysis from Malacateco x Xinabajul for the Guatemala Liga Nacional – 1 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Malacateco x Xinabajul right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1230061 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Malacateco x Xinabajul

Is it a good idea to bet on Malacateco?

🔵 Malacateco: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 71.92% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 720 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
• And would lose other 280 times – losing -$280.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$260.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.44%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $437.00
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$373.00.

Should you bet on Xinabajul?

🔴 Xinabajul: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.64% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $288.00;
• And would lose other 910 times – having a loss of -$910.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$622.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Malacateco x Xinabajul

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Malacateco
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Malacateco x Xinabajul

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Malacateco, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Malacateco.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Xinabajul.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Malacateco x Xinabajul

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.