ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa Betting tips for December 1 in Tunisia League 1

Our betting tip for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa, Sunday, 1/12/2024

📅 1/12/2024 13:00

ES Metlaoui 1.65

X 3.10

EGS Gafsa 5.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa

Some important points for the tip for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on ES Metlaoui in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-343.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on EGS Gafsa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against EGS Gafsa, ES Metlaoui scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 ES Metlaoui matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 EGS Gafsa matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, EGS Gafsa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa for the Tunisia League 1 – 1 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1230121 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa

Should you bet on ES Metlaoui?

🔵 ES Metlaoui: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 61.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 610 times – having a profit of $396.50;
• And would lose other 390 times – having a loss of -$390.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$6.50, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $651.00
• And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$39.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on EGS Gafsa?

🔴 EGS Gafsa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 7.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 70 times – profiting $315.00;
• And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$615.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 ES Metlaoui
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 ES Metlaoui and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 ES Metlaoui.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 EGS Gafsa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for ES Metlaoui x EGS Gafsa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 1.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.