Manchester City x Nottm Forest Betting tips for December 4 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Manchester City x Nottm Forest, Wednesday, 4/12/2024

📅 4/12/2024 19:30

Manchester City 1.26

X 5.50

Nottm Forest 9.81

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Manchester City x Nottm Forest:

🔮 Manchester City wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Manchester City x Nottm Forest: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Manchester City in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-152.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-270.0. 👉 In the last 3 Nottm Forest matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Nottm Forest conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Manchester City x Nottm Forest for the England Premier League – 4 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Manchester City x Nottm Forest right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1232417 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Manchester City x Nottm Forest

Should you bet on Manchester City?

🔵 Manchester City: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 91.3%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.26. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 910 times – this would give you a profit of $236.60
• And would lose other 90 times – losing -$90.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$146.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 60 times – profiting $270.00;
• And would lose other 940 times – having a loss of -$940.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$670.00.

Should you bet on Nottm Forest?

🔴 Nottm Forest: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 2.88% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 9.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 30 times – profiting $264.30;
• And would have lost other 970 times – with a loss of -$970.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$705.70.

Handicaps analysis for the match Manchester City x Nottm Forest

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Manchester City
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Manchester City x Nottm Forest

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Manchester City and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 Manchester City.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.75 Nottm Forest.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Manchester City x Nottm Forest

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.