Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense Betting tips for December 8 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense, Sunday, 8/12/2024

📅 8/12/2024 19:00

Atletico Mineiro 2.08

X 3.25

Athletico Paranaense 3.62

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense:

🔮 Atletico Mineiro wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico Mineiro, you can win up to $1040.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Mineiro in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Athletico Paranaense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Athletico Paranaense, Atletico Mineiro scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense, with Atletico Mineiro as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Athletico Paranaense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico Mineiro conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Athletico Paranaense.

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Analysis from Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense for the Brazil Serie A – 8 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atletico Mineiro and Athletico Paranaense.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1233707 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense

Is betting on Atletico Mineiro worth it?

🔵 Atletico Mineiro: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.08. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 560 times – profiting $604.80;
• And would have lost other 440 times – with a loss of -$440.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$164.80.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.58% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $607.50;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$122.50.

Should you bet on Athletico Paranaense?

🔴 Athletico Paranaense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $445.40;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$384.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Atletico Mineiro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Atletico Mineiro, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Atletico Mineiro.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Mineiro x Athletico Paranaense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.