Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima Betting tips for December 22 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima, Sunday, 22/12/2024

📅 22/12/2024 23:00

Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.95

X 3.10

Deportes Tolima 3.95

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima:

🔮 Atletico Nacional Medellin wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico Nacional Medellin, you can win up to $975.00!

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The main points for the tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Nacional Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $68.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportes Tolima in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-250.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Deportes Tolima, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima, with Atletico Nacional Medellin as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Deportes Tolima.

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Analysis from Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima for the Colombia Primera A – 22 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1239281 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima

Should you bet on Atletico Nacional Medellin?

🔵 Atletico Nacional Medellin: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 69.73% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 700 times – this would give you a profit of $665.00
• And would lose other 300 times – having a loss of -$300.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$365.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.49% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – profiting $294.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$566.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Deportes Tolima?

🔴 Deportes Tolima: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.78%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $472.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$368.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Atletico Nacional Medellin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Atletico Nacional Medellin and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Deportes Tolima

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.