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Home » Predictions » Others » Sampdoria x Pisa Betting tips for December 29 in Italy Serie B
Sunday, 29 December 2024, 18h30 Italy Serie B
Sampdoria Sampdoria
PREDICTION No tip
Pisa Pisa
Don't miss this prediction!

Sampdoria x Pisa Betting tips for December 29 in Italy Serie B

Our betting tip for Sampdoria x Pisa, Sunday, 29/12/2024
📅 29/12/2024
18:30
Sampdoria Sampdoria
2.55
X
3.25
Pisa Pisa
2.62

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Sampdoria x Pisa:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Sampdoria x Pisa

Some important points for the tip for Sampdoria x Pisa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sampdoria in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-335.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Pisa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $65.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Pisa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Sampdoria x Pisa for the Italy Serie B – 29 of December

🏟️ Sampdoria X Pisa – Italy Serie B
📅 29 of December, 2024 – 18:30
🔵 Sampdoria – Winning probability: 33.87% | Fair line: 2.95
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 31.28% | Fair line: 3.2
🔴 Pisa – Winning probability: 34.85% | Fair line: 2.87
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Sampdoria
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sampdoria x Pisa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1240337 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sampdoria x Pisa

Should you bet on Sampdoria?

🔵 Sampdoria: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.87% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $527.00
  • And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$133.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 310 times – profiting $697.50;
  • And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$7.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on Pisa?

🔴 Pisa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.85% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $567.00;
  • And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$83.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Sampdoria x Pisa

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Sampdoria
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sampdoria x Pisa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Sampdoria, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Sampdoria.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Sampdoria.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sampdoria x Pisa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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